OHL Playoff Preview: Kingston Frontenacs vs Niagara IceDogs

#1 Kingston Frontenacs vs #4 Niagara IceDogs
Season Series: Kingston (3-1-0-0) – Niagara (1-2-0-1)

When the Kingston Frontenacs and Niagara IceDogs kick of their second round playoff series on Thursday night in Kingston it will be the match up many experts and analysts predicted we’d see. However both teams had their struggles at times in the first round against teams who weren’t exactly expected to put up much of a fight. While the Frontenacs had the easier first round match up, squaring off against the eighth seeded Oshawa Generals, it certainly wasn’t an easy go of things through the five game series. Kingston did come out of the gates strong, scoring 6-0 and 7-3 victories on home ice. However when the series shifted to Oshawa things changed. Full credit to the Generals for upping their compete level and scoring a narrow overtime victory in Game 4, however Game 3 was no cake walk for the Frontenacs, as it took a late third period goal by Michael Dal Colle to secure the victory. One could argue Oshawa should have won Game 3, but hindsight has no relevance on the outcome of a series, a series in which Kingston ultimately claimed in five games.

In Niagara, the IceDogs had the tougher first round match up, squaring off against the fifth seeded Ottawa 67’s, who came into the 2016 OHL playoffs red hot. Niagara would take game one of the series by a score of 5-4, although it was a game Ottawa could have had and let it slip away. With the Niagara coming away with a 5-3 win in game two they headed to Ottawa up two games to zero, but one has to wonder if the IceDogs lost Game 1 how things may have turned out given the teams up and down play throughout the season. But again hindsight has no relevance on a series, and the IceDogs proved to be the better team as the series went on. While they would drop Game 3 in the Nations Capital, Jordan Maletta played overtime hero in Game 4, deflating a confident 67’s team in the process. Game 5 was nearly in the bag before it started as the IceDogs cruised to a 5-2 victory and claimed the series in five games.

While both teams emerged from their first round series in five games, goaltending took centre stage in both series. In the Kingston/Oshawa series it was a revolving door for the Frontenacs, at least in Games 3 and 4. In both games in Oshawa the starter was pulled. In Game 3 Jeremy Helvig was undoubtedly off his game, giving up a series of weak goals, only to see Lucas Peressini come in and look average at best, but good enough to win the game. In Game 4 the tables were turned as Peressini started but was pulled after struggling himself. While Helvig did relieve Peressini for a short time, Peressini returned to the goal in the third period, subsequently losing the game, reopening the door for Jeremy Helvig to start in Game 5, where he recorded a 20 save shutout. Meanwhile in Niagara despite a save percentage of just 0.884, Alex Nedeljkovic was arguably the reason the IceDogs where able to secure the series victory in just five games. Nedeljkovic may not have been his best in the opening games in Niagara, but certainly stole the show in Game 4 before putting in another solid effort in Game 5.

Jeremy Helvig started in all three of Kingston’s victories over Niagara during the regular season allowing a combined three goals. The Markham, Ontario native was excellent for the Frontenacs throughout the regular season and his play on home ice through the first round of the playoffs, coupled with his success against the IceDogs this season should secure his spot as the Game 1 starter. Is goaltending a concern for the Frontenacs ? Watching Games 3 and 4 in Oshawa you’d lean with a yes answer, however watching Games 1,2 and 5 you’d laugh at the sentiment. Can Jeremy Helvig step up on the road in a crucial series where he will be squaring off against arguably the leagues top netminder who has a pedigree for being a “Big Game Goaltender”. Speaking of the big game goaltender, is it safe to say Alex Nedeljkovic has found his form in Niagara? There have been times this season were Nedeljkovic has been average at best, but there also have been times where he has stepped up and stole the show. When his team needs the big save, he is the guy who can provide. Nedeljkovic’s track record proves his big game success. Look at what he did for the Plymouth Whalers as a rookie, leading them to a Western Conference Final, or look no further then what he did for Team USA at the recent World Junior Championships. With two offenses that can produce at a torrid pace, this series could come down to goaltending and it’s hard for me to give Kingston the edge in that category.

As mentioned both teams have potent offensive attacks. Kingston is lead by argubably the top line in the CHL (Right Now) in Michael Dal Colle, Spencer Watson and Warren Foegele. The line was simply dominate against the Generals with Watson and Dal Colle combining for 29 points through the five game series, while Foegele potted eight goals. If that wasn’t enough offense, don’t forget Kingston also boasts the likes of World Junior competitors Juho Lammikko and Lawson Crouse, along with point producing veterans Jared Steege, Ryan Verbeek and Connor McGlynn. Kingston’s ability to come at you in waves offensively is what makes them so good, there isn’t a shift in the game where the club isn’t attacking the offensive zone and it wreaks havoc on defensive units. The Dal Colle-Foegele-Watson like is nearly unstoppable and limiting them will be the key for Niagara in this series, the question is can anyone limit the potent trio. Meanwhile the IceDogs boast their own arsenal of offensive guns with Josh Ho-Sang, Pavel Jenys, Brendan Perlini and Jordan Maletta. Now outside of Josh Ho-Sang the IceDogs big guns were fairly quiet with Perlini recording just three points and Maletta just two, however Jenys five goals in five games was a pleasant surprise as the Minnesota Wild prospect wasn’t exactly the dominating presence Niagara hoped for when they acquired him from Sudbury. Niagara has the ability to put up crooked numbers on an opposing club, however I don’t believe any team can match Kingston’s offensive depth, at least in the Eastern Conference.

Defensively speaking the IceDogs and Frontenacs are hands down the deepest along the blue line and both possesses excellent balance. Both clubs have the offensive minded defensemen that can change a game from the blue line, both have the steady and physical defensive presences and both have the stud, big name blue liners. The question is who can limit the opposition best. Niagara on paper is undoubtedly the best defense core in the league, however on paper and on the ice are two completely different stories. Niagara’s defense core boasting several NHL draft picks hasn’t been what many expect it to be, but the potential of them finally putting it together and breaking out is hard to ignore. If any defense core could go shift for shift with the depth of the Kingston Frontenacs, its the IceDogs back end. With that being said, Kingston’s back end has been very good, Roland McKeown has really stepped up an already sound game, while Stephen Desrocher has been excellent at both ends of the rink for the Frontenacs. However it’s the rarely talked about Chad Duchesne and rookie Jacob Paquette who have been difference makers for the Frontenacs. Both players fly under the radar for different reasons, but both have been excellent throughout the regular season and first round of the playoffs. Despite an on paper advantage for Niagara, Kingston may be the better defensive unit on the ice.

After breaking down the clubs offense, goaltending and defense, you quickly realize these teams are fairly evenly matched despite the seeding and twenty point difference in the regular season standings. It’s going to be a tough series for both sides, with the winner likely to emerge from the Eastern Conference as its Champion. I have a hard time betting against a team with Alex Nedeljkovic as their starting goaltender, although I did it in round one and Niagara quickly proved me wrong. But after seeing Kingston up close and personal through the first round, that team is simply dominate. Will they drop a game or two in this series, I have to think so, but ultimately I expect the Frontenacs to emerge from this Eastern Conference Semi-Final in Six Games.